Bear or Superbear? The new Draaisma-land

The lead time is much shorter, and often equity and economic recoveries are coincident, and sometimes economies bottom before equities do so. Patience is key. Today's message: indeed, this is consistent with our finding that one should be patient in bear markets as there is not much discounting of the upturn going on at the end of the bear market, after numerous failed rallies and false hopes (see Exhibits 9 and 10).

5. Times have changed, but most rules have not. Although times have changed dramatically over the last century, and economies have been functioning differently, while investors have arguably become more sophisticated, there are many common signs and characteristics at the bottom of bear markets.

6. Don't fight the Fed. When the Fed cuts rates and equities are cheap, you should buy.



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